and pete williams saying there has been though arrest made. the fbi coming out and confirming that. we've got video of somebody setting down a bag, but no idea. they also have what they call solid leads, but no arrests. that's what we stand as we hit 3:00 p.m. eastern time. >> we'll continue to follow it on cnbc. thank you very much for watching "street signs." and we do welcome you to this edition of the "closing bell," a back and forth day of epic proportions for the markets and the news. i'm bill griffeth here at cnbc headquarters. >> and i'm michelle crusoe down here at the new york stock exchange, bill. let's go through what we know at this hour, one hour before the close. the news related to the boston bombings, certainly moving the markets back and forth today. here's what we know definitively. video shows is someone setting down a bag near the bomb location. authorities have told nbc news there are solid leads, but no arrest has been made yet. we've heard that now from

numerous sources, including the fbi. no one has been specifically identified. we are waiting, however, for a joint news conference in boston at 5:00 p.m., which we believe will be led by the fbi. just a few minutes ago, the fbi released this statement saying, contrary to widespread reporting, there have been no arrests made in connection with the boston marathon attack. over the past day and a half, there have been a number of press reports from unofficial sources that have been inaccurate. since these stories often have unintentional consequences, we ask the media, particularly at this early stage in the investigation, to exercise caution and attempt to verify information through appropriate official channels before reporting. >> and you've seen this back and forth in the market all day, which we will get to in the final hour of trade on this tuesday. but first, things are moving fast into the investigation in the marathon bombing. scott cohn is in boston with the very latest right now.

scott? >> reporter: bill, let me do something a little bit different than what's been going on for the last couple of hours and give you sort of an eyes and ears account of what we've seen, which is a lot less than some of the reports that have been out here, but it is still significant. we have seen quite a bit of activity along boylston street, the final quarter mile or so of the boston marathon, where the tragic events of monday afternoon took place. a lot of technicians, fbi, atf, gathering what appears to be evidence. and we also know from pictures that have been released what some of that evidence is. it includes fragments of the bomb or bombs. we know there were two blasts. we don't know which fragment, obviously, which belongs to which device, but the fragments are important as well. they include shrapnel, which is placed in these pressure cookers to deliberately do harm. small nails, bbs, bail bearings, things like that, pieces of

metal. we also have seen, i'll hang on for the truck there to go by. we've also seen in those pictures, batteries, wiring, what appears to be a circuit board, all of those things are important clues. and the bigger important clue or set of clues, something that authorities have been asking for almost the very beginning, is video, cell phone video, surveillance video, and it does appear according to nbc news sources in law enforcement, that there is some video of somebody placing a black bag or a dark bag at the site near the site of the explosions. we should caution that there may have been a lot of people placing bags on the ground, as they come to watch runners pass the finish line. that may not have been the bomb at all. but if you are an investigator trying to get to the bottom of this, that's someone opportunity to talk to. and what law enforcement sources are telling us is that there are a lot of people now that they want to talk to based on all of

this evidence. but with everybody, world media here, law enforcement agencies from around the country, really lacking at this, there are a lot of -- there's a lot of information that's flying around and a lot o opportunipportuniti to conclusions. that appears to be what happened. nonetheless, they've made some tremendous strides. we can see that based on what we're looking at on the ground since the attacks on monday afternoon. guys? >> a great rundown, scott, of what we know and don't know at this point. much appreciated. now, the markets reacting to the news or lack of news out of boston, depending on the moment today. bob pisani has the details. bob? >> well, importantly thing here is it started off very ugly, michelle. take a look at dow jones industrial average. ugly right from the start. we were down as much as 193 points at the worst part. in the middle of the day, we kind of came off of our lows and most of the traders attribute that to news that progress was being made on the boston marathon case, as you heard there from scott. there's the dow industrials, for one month. here's the problem that everybody's got down here.

we were in an up trend in the stock market, all throughout the year, until monday. and now we have had two days, bad news, 90% of the volume on the downside monday, and 90% of the volume on the downside today, selling. now, this may be the start of a trend reversal. that means instead of an up trend, the market's not in an up trend anymore. these kind of internal indicators is what people look for. that's what people are lacking for. your big base metals, copper, aluminum, nickel, are essentially at 52-week lows. there's the global slowdown story that so many people have been talking about. and it may finally now be starting to infect the stock market. commodity names have been hit again today. oil service names, steel stocks, coal stocks, copper mines, all down 5%, 6%. michelle, this is the same kind of carnage we saw on monday as well. >> bob, thanks very much. let's take a closer look at the markets and how they've traded

today in our closing bell exchange with michael bell, kenny palcari, peter anderson, and you are own rick santelli. kenny p., you guys on the floor, you really feel the minute-by-minute back and forth of the markets. what is motivating the market right now? are these earnings having this impact or is this all about the issues facing security in boston and in washington, d.c.? >> it's not -- listen, that's part of it, but the issue with the market is a realization now that the market is probably well ahead of itself, based on what the economy is, based on what we're seeing happening around the world in china, certainly what's going on in europe. so the fact is that investors all of a sudden are deciding, geez, we better start paying attention to this news, becausing the market is well ahead of itself. so what you're seeing is the market backing off and really coming back or trying to come back to a state of equilibrium between where the economy is and where the market should be. the whole boston thing and

boston marathon and that down in d.c. is certainly adding some angst to the market, but that's not the reason the market is off 170 points. part of it is much more technical just in terms of market action. >> but, michael, when we saw the market come off the lows, it happened to be when we thought there was an arrest. is that a coincidence with the markets? >> i think to some extent, there's going to be a little bit of a relief move if you see some kind of arrest really happen, but these deflationary pressures have been in play since the end of january when commodities started falling, defensive sectors started leading. you get the sense that something's happening, you get the feeling that something's about to hurt and then the spasm happens. when you have deflationary junctures, which is what every part of the market place is seeing is happening right now, that $85 billion a month is not enough from the fed -- >> you're making reference to how much they're buying every month when it comes to

securities out? >> correct. >> peter anderson, bank of america may have set the tone this morning with that disappointing earnings report, yes? >> y >> yes, it was. and that's symptomatic of the -- >> peter, hang on one second. we'll have to do this for the next couple of hours as more news continues to break. let's go to sue herrera with the latest. what do you have, sue? >> bill, our team on the ground in boston is reporting to us that the federal courthouse in boston is now being evacuated. you're looking at a live picture right now of people leaving that courthouse. we don't know why it's being evacuated. our team is working on thats s aspect of the story, of course. all of this as the very fluid situation in boston continues. as we told you during power lunch, the associated press reporting that an arrest was imminent in that case, and everybody backed off of parts of that story. so we're still watching a very fluid and developing story, but right now, the latest aspect of this story is that the federal

courthouse in boston, as reported by our team on the ground there, is being evacuated. we'll continue to monitor it, bill. back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. we're watching all kinds of moving parts and pieces today on what has been a very newsy day. peter anderson, again, your thoughts, briefly, on the bank of america news. you know, the financial institutions, those reports are the ones we clearly have been watching most closely this earnings season, haven't we? >> yes, we have. and i think what's happened is the market has kind of gotten ahead of itself, because we have all baked in very optimistic expectations for the first quarter. what we're actually seeing are adjustments. and remember, next week, 170 stocks in the s&p 500 are going to be reporting their earnings, so i would suggest staying on the sidelines until those earnings are reported, because i'm expecting to see a lot of downward revisions for the rest of the year. then that might be a buying opportunity, after that wave of reports comes out. >> rick santelli, as we have seen money coming out of stocks,

they have been going into treasuries, pushing interest rates even lower. what message are we getting from treasuries? do you agree with michael that this is about deflation fears? >> i don't believe it's about deflation fears. i think commodities are telling us that the deleveraging of some somethings like commodities, which have been levered up on some easy money and some carried tight trades, that unraveling has triggered many events, not the least of which is, look at the european auto market. it is within a whisper of testing the lowest levels of auto sales activity in 20 years. you add that to the china growth story, the weakest pace in 13 years, the deleveraging and the instability -- >> rick, that sounds deflationary, that sounds deflationary, rick. >> here's the problem. if you say that's deflationary, then what we are saying is, is that when you have easy money and you build up these big bubbles, when it doesn't last, that you have to keep doing it.

and i say that you have to delever down to some sort of reality. that's a healing process. because why it's important is, it's about the medicine that you either reapply that doesn't work or doesn't take hold, or you look at it for what it really is. economic semantics causes wrong medicine. >> gentleman, i would love to continue the conversation. we love hearing from all of you, but we have to move on. we have more news as it comes out during this last hour of trade on this very newsy tuesday, michelle. >> there are 49 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial is lower by 139 points, it was down by 195. the s&p lower as well. >> and we will bring more on what's happening in boston, on washington, d.c., and on wall street as the story continues to develop, so stay with us here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "closing bell." joining us now is robert strong, a ceo of investigative management. he's former co-chair of the new york state anti-terror task force and a former federal agent with both the fbi and the dea. robert, good to see you again. welcome back. >> hey, bill, thank you. >> what do you make of the developments today, where we -- at one point, we were led to believe that an arrest was

imminent, the custody -- a suspect was in custody. now we're hearing from fbi and other law enforcement officials that that's just not true. certainly, we'd like to see all this happen, but what's going on here? >> yeah, i mean, bill, right now the investigation, things are very fluid. you've got to remember, there are so many different aspects of the case. you've got the forensics lacking at the bomb, trying to find out the ingredients, where they were purchased, who purchased them. you have the investigators on the crime scene, combing for any piece of evidence or dna that might be available, that they can find, and you have the agents who are going through the vast reels and video, looking for differences and piecing this and editing it together. people's video from their phones, cctv from the stores, the closed circuit television, the television cameras. so there's a lot of things going on right now. real worry -- go ahead, sorry. >> i was going to ask, somebody clearly told a reporter something. how does it happen behind the

scenes that a law enforcement message can be so muddled? >> well, you know, i've been there. i know when things get excited and you've got a great lead and you're going out on that lead and you're going to go to the suspect's home, you're going to go check it out. sometimes you think that you've got something really strong. sometimes people can pick up that vibe as saying, hey, they're going out after a suspect, they think it's the person, they're going to make an arrest. and unfortunately, this happens during the course of the investigation. but this is going to be a drawn-out investigation, unfortunately, because the evidence is overwhelming, the information is coming in very slowly, and it's going to take some time. the scary part is, like, we just saw a few minutes ago, that the courthouse was being evacuated. now, keep in mind -- >> and we don't know why, for those of you just joining us. they just evacuated. it's the federal courthouse there in boston and we haven't been told why. >> the thing is with this, because this case isn't solved, because we don't have a solid lead or an arrest or any

responsibility taken for this explosion, we're not sure where it goes from here. is there something else going to happen in boston? something else going to happen in another city across the country? that's really the focus here. ant a lid on this and make sure that we know who did it and stop it. >> i know we've all been conditioned by the police dramas of the last 30 years that wrap up a case in one hour, but i have to say, i am impressed with the progress that has been made in technology that allows us to even been 48 hours, be this close, apparently, to what we've got right now, right? >> that's right, bill. and it's not only the technology within homeland security, the fbi and atf and what they can do to dissect this explosive and what we can do with dna evidence and the crime scene, but it's also the technology with the pedestrians and the people who are running the marathon and just people who are out there, who are assisting law enforcement. it all comes together. >> in the business world, we call it crowd sourcing, actually. it's a very similar thing. thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks, bob. >> okay, michelle, bill, thank

you. >> we turn now to former new york city mayor, rudy giuliani, who's back with us. he's on the phone this time. mr. mayor, welcome back. >> how are you? >> good. question we have for you, you worked in law enforcement longer than you did in the management in new york city. how does it happen that -- i mean, we had so many reports today suggesting an arrest had been made -- >> yep, true. >> -- in whose best interest is it for a law enforcement official to tell a reporter that an arrest has been made when there is none? >> well, there are so many possibilities, it's hard to say. could it be a deliberate false report, in order to generate activity? in order to generate maybe somebody trying to run -- >> flush somebody out? >> -- somebody going to the airport, i've done that. that's a possibility. i don't think that's what's going on here. but that's a possibility. could it be the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, since you've got both state and local and federal law enforcement and somebody's being

called in for questioning and somebody describes that as an arrest. that's quite possible. and also what's possible is twhai, they're questioning somebody but they don't want to call it an arrest, because the minute you call it an arrest, you have to give miranda warnings. so they could have somebody that they've gone after to question, people observing it within law enforcement think it's going to be an arrest, but from their point of view, they donate want to call it an arrest, because now you're going to trigger miranda warnings and the person's going to go get a lawyer. >> mr. mayor, it's michelle here. what do you make of the progress so far when you see all of the stuff that is on twitter and social media, when you have individuals supplying and examining photos and circling people that have black backpacks, et cetera. is that helpful, and how far, based on what you know, do you think the investigation has gone? >> well, you know, i think it is going to be helpful. it may actually lengthen the investigation, because there's

more to go through. you're sort of like, to some extent, looking for a needle in a haystack. but ultimately, the more material that you can get, the better it's going to be. you may have to go through a lot of stuff that's useless. you may have to go through a lot of stuff that's useless, but ultimately, it's going to give you a lot more raw material. >> we know a lot more than when you and i and maria spoke on monday. we know the nature of the bomb, but still, nobody has taken credit for any of this. i mean, what's your sense now of who this might have been and what the motivation might have been? >> well, i don't think we know any more than we did in terms of what we know. i think they know a lot more than they did two days ago, but i don't think we do. i mean, we still don't know if this is a single individual or part of a group. we don't know if this is an ideologically motivated bombing. you know, a politically motivated or religiously motivated bombing, or if it's something that has to do with some kind of animosity toward people for some insane reason. all these things, i think we're

still in doubt about. so i think they've gotten further, but i don't think you or i and the general public has. >> mr. mayor, is it possible, we've seen suggestions coming up, conspiracy theories, and you hinted at this maybe a little bit at the beginning. that they do have someone in custody and they just don't want the world to know it yet. >> it is possible that they don't want to call it custody. because if you call it custody, like i said, you have to give miranda warnings. miranda is triggered when a person is in custody, is not able to leave. >> but that means, if they have that person in custody and they haven't read the miranda rights, in theory, that person could just get up and leave. >> no, they have somebody who's willing to be questioned. they have somebody -- you've seen this on television, right? a person willing to come down to the police station and be questioned. if the person is willing to be questioned and could leave if they wanted to, this is the

definition, then he's not technically in custody and you don't have to give him miranda warnings. so they may have a situation where they're playing with somebody and somebody's playing with them, but it isn't quite custody. and they don't want to call it that or make it that, because, again, the lawyer walks in. >> i don't know if you've heard, we're looking at pictures to have the federal courthouse there in boston, but they had to evacuate that moments ago. nont know what that's about, and i imagine you don't either at this point. >> situations like this, you get bomb scares and all kinds of crazy stuff. let's hope it isn't anything serious. >> mr. mayor, good to talk to you again, thank. >> good to talk to you. >> rudy giuliani on the phone there. we'll have more. we've got the latest from boston coming up as well as that ricen scare that hit capitol hill and the white house earlier today. >> i found that very helpful, what he said. >> a former federal prosecutor would know how the procedure works there and it's possible, as he said, that they have

somebody that they're talking to, somebody may have seen that person walking through the door, they took it to be a suspect that may have been about ready to be arrested. and that may be the reason that they leaked that to the press. but i remember the words of former "wall street journal" editor paul steiger, who told his troops for years and years, when you have a big story, get the story first, but get it right, but get it first, but get it right. >> right. it >> it's a balance. >> the industrials lower by about 123 points, we've got about 37 minutes left before the close. we'll be back in a moment. ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of long weekends and longer retirements. ♪ ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future.

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more breaking news from boston. he's sue herrera with details. >> bill, we mentioned before, this story continues to develop and change. just last half hour, we showed you the footage of the courth being evacuated. well, a federal official tells nbc's pete williams that that evacuation was triggered by an unrelated bomb threat at the courthouse in boston. also, in addition to that, pete williams reports so far, no arrests and no one has been brought to court. federal officials telling pete williams once again that that evacuation was due to a bomb threat, but it is not related to the terror incident that occurred in boston several days ago. continues to change, bill. we'll keep you posted.

>> just one of those days, sue. thanks. let's talk about how the markets have been affected by the news today. >> joining us now is our own jeff cox and joe greco of meridian equity partners from the new york stock exchange as well. hi, guys. jeff, let me start about you, you wrote about the vix today. this would seem to be one of the days where we see the vix, the fear index, as it's called, the volatility index, definitely racketing. what's it telling us? >> yeah, a different kind of fear, obviously, than what we've all been talking about all day. but, michelle, what i've seen and what i've heard from traders is we're seeing a lot of call auction buying on the vix. this is a bullish sign, it's the fear index, the volatility index. when that has happened, we had an episode like this about three years ago. we saw a 9% drop in the market over a course of four weeks. also hearing from some technical chart people, looking at a possible bottoming pattern as far as the vix goes also.

both of these negative signs as far as the s&p 500 goes, starting to see what we call a reversion to the mean, which would mean, basically, things get back to normal, the vix goes back up to what its average level is, and that's going to be knowing as far as market impacts. >> joe, you and i have had lots of conversations about gold, gold has had its own issues lately, unrelated to these events. but this market and gold in particular, does it act normally under these fearful conditions right now? >> well, actually, just the opposite. i'm sure that was a little bit of a layup for me there, but the precipitous move on monday in gold, ahead of the tragic incident at 2:50 that day really is quite surprising, because you'd expect that people would be moving into at that point, and we wouldn't have had such a recovery in equities alongside of all of that. but getting back to the vix, as my counterpart there said, there really is heightened awareness now, and it seems like the vix is trying to show the response

investors and traders are having to what's going on in boston and what hasn't happened, which is the clarity on the cause or the actual terrorists or perpetrators in the incident. >> so typically when we have the fear trade, people would rush to the dollar, they would rush to the bond market, they would rush to gold. now they rush to the vix. is that where we go now? is that where we see fear reflected in this market? >> those are all great points you made there, bill. strange things happening in the market, but it actually is, i just think, finally the sentiment getting out there that the market has taken about as many punches as it can take. all of the things that are happening, not just in boston, but when you look over what's happening overseas in north korea, the european things flaring up. now, these headlines today about china and the problems that they're having with debt. i just think the market's kind of had enough and really sort of ready to take a pause here. and yes, we're seeing that reflected in the vix trade. >> joe, it is possible what gold is telling us, when we talk

about what the fear is, if the fear is deflation, then gold, in theory, sells off, right? it can work together? >> it could sell off considerably. and i'll bolt on a little bit of the equities story, being down here on the equity trading floor, and that is, you see winners -- you know, traditional winners, or winners for the last few quarters like bank of america coming out and missing and they get punished very badly. clearly people are saying, you know what, you've done well for me, but time for me to take a little risk off. instead of them translating that right over into the traditional safe haven of gold, maybe they're considering the vix, maybe they're considering cash to stay in whatever their base currency is, because right now we're not sure. and what we're going to see over the next sfeveral days, we had potentially lethal mailing down in washington. people want to be a little bit more tentative to commit to a next move. they may want to stay in currency. >> thanks, guys. appreciate your thoughts.

in fact, let's get to that. boston not the only city experiencing terror this week. eamon javers is in washington with the latest on those suspicious letters, possibly tainted with the poison ricin. eamon? >> reporter: that's right, bill. a little bit of a jittery day up here on capitol hill. at one point, staffers got e-mails from the u.s. capitol police telling them to avoid the third floor of the hart senate office building, and at another point, this office behind me in the russell senate office building was actually closed down and a bomb squad came in to investigate a suspicious package here. a lot of nerves here, a lot of jitters in response to a letter to senator roger wickers office that tested positive in preliminary tests for the poison ricin. also today, the white house came out and said that indeed a letter had been found at the white house mail processing facility that was addressed to the president, that also tested positive in a preliminary test for ricin. so a lot of concern here about what might be going on here. at one point yesterday, a senator said that she and some of the law enforcement folks

here were focusing on one particular person, who is known to send a lot of hate mail up here to capitol hill. no indication of whether that has proceeded or not at all, but over at the white house, the press secretary, jay carney, addressed all of this a little bit earlier. take a listen. >> there was a letter sent to, addressed to the esidhat at an off-site mail facility, it was noticed to have contained a suspicious substance and tests were undertaken. the fbi has the lead in that investigation, of course, and has said in its statement that they will be conducting further tests to determine what the nature of the substance is. >> and guys, of course, the irony here is that the mail processing facility that handles the mail that comes up here to capitol hill was established in the wake of the 2001 anthrax attacks here on capitol hill, so that the mail wouldn't come here into the senate office buildings first. it would go to this off-site

facility to be screened, and that appears to be where they caught this. another senator, senator levin of michigan, has put out a statement saying that one of his district offices back in michigan also received a letter that it determined to be suspicious and they called authorities in there as well. so both here in washington and apparently across the country, congressional and government officials are very wary today, guys. >> makings a lot of sense. thanks so much, eamon. we just got the update from washington from eamon. next we'll head back to boston and get the latest developments on the bombing investigation there. >> a little over 30 minutes left in the trade, with the dow down 145. we'll also hear from a terror expert on all of the twists and turns in this case, when michelle and i come back. totall. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and the streetsmart edge trading platform from charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums.

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it has been a day of many developments into the investigation of the boston marathon bombings. our scott cohn is in boston with the very latest that he has for us right now. scott? >> reporter: bill, if there's one thing that the last several hours have told us, it is that everyone, people around the world, the media, law enforcement, everyone is on edge, which is understandable with the attacks on the boston

marathon, just 48 hours ago. i want to show you the scene at the federal courthouse, a couple of miles from here. cnbc producer justin solomon, a boston native, is there and has told us that what he's been seeing is the fire department arriving on the sight, agents going into the building with dogs, the building has been evacuated, because of what is apparently an unrelated bomb threat and much of the media had been drawn there, based on an inaccurate report that there was a suspect or suspects in custody that were going to be brought to the courthouse. the media throng has been pushed back further and further, according to justin solomon, and we are awaiting what that is all about. here's what we know, and what has been going on today. around mid-morning, we saw heightened activity on boylston street, the scene of the crime, a lot of evidence technicians swarming the scene, from the fbi, the atf. they were going through, everything from port-a-potties, picking up scraps, things on the

ground, actually going up on the roofs to see whatever other scraps of evidence they could come up with, as you see in the pictures that we shot earlier today. they also now, i'm being told, the search for evidence was quite fruitful, it seems, because there were fragments of the bombs, fragments of the bags they apparently were held in. all of those that have been taken into custody, many of them sent to an analytical center down in quantico, virginia, where they'll try to reconstruct the bombs. there are fragments of pressure cookers, fragments of shrapnel, as well as pieces of wiring and batteries and what looks to be a circuit board. we also know, according to sources, that there has been quite a bit of video evidence that has been compiled, including evidence of an individual setting down a black bag near the finish line on

monday afternoon. now, we should stress that in a crowd of what could be hundreds if not thousands of people, there probably were a lot of people setting down black bags. that doesn't necessarily mean it was the bomber. it just means that it's someone that authorities would like to talk to. they have said that there has been tremendous response to their request from the public, for the public to send them evidence, video evidence, anything they knew, anything they heard. and while we dona't have the outcome that a lot of people hoped for and maybe wishfully reported 48 hours after the fact, they have made what appear to be some tremendous strides. bill and michelle? >> scott, thanks very much. we'll be checking back as news warrants. you've done a great job, as usual. and when we last heard the fbi was to hold a news briefing, at 5:00 eastern time, and we'll be here for that. more on the twists and turns that an investigation like this takes. we turn to phillip mudd here, michelle. >> phillip is a former deputy director of the cia's counterterrorism center. he's now a senior research

fellow at the new america foundation. sir, so good to have you with us. i'm sure you're aware of these deeply afflicting accounts about whether or not someone was in custody. nbc news says there is no one in custody at this point. we had mayor giuliani on earlier, former u.s. attorney, and extremely successful one as well, he has there's a lot of possibilities as to why there are so many conflicting reports. he said it could be that law enforcement wasn't communicating with each other properly. but he also suggested this possibility. maybe they're questioning somebody right now, they don't want to call him a suspect or say it's an arrest, because then they may have to read him the miranda rights. what are your thoughts on what the possibilities are. could he be right? >> let me be blunt. we're missing the story here. we have what we would call in the intelligence business single threat of reporting that they have a suspect, single threat of reporting is by definition, in my business, suspect. >> what does that mean? what does that mean? >> we have one person saying, apparently disputed on the outside, there was an arrest,

and we have the federal government saying, not so much. there's a fact there that we have not discussed. and that fact is hidden. the fbi is saying they've made substantial progress in this case. i sat on the seventh floor, that is the executive suite, at the fbi with director muller. it's a conservative organization that does not get out in front of the press. if they're saying substantial progress, i'm not here to say they have a suspect, i'm here to say they're not setting themselves up tomorrow to say, we don't have anything to tell you. something's going on here. i'm not sure it's an arrest. >> but here's a question i had before, in whose best interest is it, then, clearly, somebody in law enforcement told a reporter somewhere, we've got a suspect, we've got an arrest imminent, and we're taking this person to the federal courthouse. who would do that if it's not true? >> after 25 years in this town, there are people who talk because they think they're important, there are people who talk because they're friends with reporters, there are people who talk about a fragment of what they know and blow it up into the whole story. that's washington leaks. it happens every day.

>> what do you think the happening, based on what you said in terms of the fbi saying they've made substantial progress? i think you're looking through mountains of data in the category of talking to witnesses. the tips coming in in these scenarios are overwhelming. and finally that video evidence, which is sort of a 21st century phenomenon, is going to yield clues. one thing i suspect is going on, though, even if you're homing in on one direction, you cannot close out the option that you're wrong. so there are parallel investigations, inquiries, analyses going on, even if they think they got the right guy. >> do you think it could be that there are different law enforcement agencies that are working at odds with each other, or how well coordinated do you think this is right now? >> i think it's very well coordinated. we've been around this for 12 years. by the way, i disagree with your earlier reporter. i don't think there's a lot of attention around. i think america has graduated, taken a baby step on dealing with risk. i was in new york on fifth avenue. i was just on capital avenue

here in washington, d.c. penn station, union station, people are quite cool in ways they would not have been 12say boston is remarkable. people to me in the business will say, we look up to boston. >> senator mitch mcconnell made that point yesterday, but his conclusion was, that's complacency. >> i completely disagree. the responsibility we have as professionals is to keep this problem away from americans so they can think about other things. some things like red sox baseball, that aren't important, and some things that are, like child obesity, kiddie porn, murder rate in this country, drug trafficking organizations. i don't think americans are complacent at all. i'm proud to have served in a space that gave them the ability to think about something else. >> phillip, great to have you on. >> 17 minutes left in the trading day. much more on the market reaction to all of the news out of boston and in washington, michelle. >> we'll be back in a moment with the dow jones industrial average lower by 149 points,

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how's it look at the close, bob? >> well, we're sort of going sideways. you're right. we did come out. take a look at the dow jones industrial average. it was an ugly start. we were down as much as 189 points. we did come off the lows on word that progress was being made in the investigation up there, but as you can see, we're sort of moving sideways here. it looks like we're probably going to end right around this area. take a look at the key story today, which i still believe is commodities, because traders have been saying commodities are at new lows. i'm talking copper, aluminum, nickel. that's telling a global growth slowdown story. people have been wondering, who's right. for a moment, it looks the commodity market has been right. take a look at some sectors we've seen here. technology, a tough day, apple's been down, finance has been down, because bank of america has been down. so it's not just the commodity story here as well, some disappointments on the bank earnings, energy, industrials, materials also on the weak side. commodity countries, and this is another way you can look at this, there's peru, brazil,

canada, australia, south africa, these are all exchange-traded funds you can buy, all down about 2% on the day. finally, guys, the thing that's worrying me, we've been in an up trend all year. now for two days, monday and today, we have had big down days with big volume, 90% of the volume to the downside, those are very big days, when you see that kind of thing happen, and some people are now starting to wonder whether we have a trend reversal on. instead of an up trend in the market, in fact, that's not happening anymore. that's the big debate going on down here. >> when you look at that chart you just showed, bob, it certainly raises the question. thank you. >> you bet. about 12 minutes before the closing bell, right now the dow jones industrial average is lower by about 136 points. >> our next guest says this is a great entry point for investors. todd shochoenberger will join u and tell us why he's so bullish.

this has turned out to be a

very volatile week for the markets and today, more big swings, michelle. >> let's break it down. joining us is jim mcdonald from northern trust global investments. this week, overall, so far, looks pretty negative. you went into the year very positive. you still positive, despite these two big sell-offs this week? >> we are. i think what's happened today, for example, we've gotten a one-two punch over concerns between european credit and also some worries about the global growth environment. we think we may have a little bit of a pause here, but we're going to see continued growth through the year. it will be rewarded by take risk in the stock market. >> why? >> because with growth keeping up and inflation being under control, monetary policy is going to stay very easy, and we see that as being something that's going to lead to equity returns being positive. >> you have to admit, we've had a very good first quarter, 10% gains for most of the averages, 15% at the most extreme. aren't we due for a correction of some kind? >> well, we could absolutely have a pause here and a small correction wouldn't be off the realm, but without a big

downturn in data or a big change in monetary policy expectations, i think it will be relative tame. >> what have you thought of the earnings so far this season? >> they've been modestly disappointing. we got some news today about corporate business jet appetite that was a little bit disappointing. but then look at the fed beige book report today, where they saw their seeing slightly improved growth in march. that's been the concern, did the economy slow a lot at the end of the quarter. and we think there's some evidence it didn't. >> what do you say to people who say, look at gold, look at these commodities, there is a fear of deflation and they think it's quite possible based on what's happening. >> i would very clearly differentiate gold from commodities. we think the fact that gold's come down is evidence that people think that quantitative easing is actually going to start to be pared back. the commodity trade is a little bit more disconcerting, because it is a better reflection on the growth prospects. i think the odds of deflation

happening are very flow. the fed will keep printing more reserves if they need to. >> you're a global guy, who do you like best, the u.s., japan? any of these countries that are so aggressive with their monetary policies. >> and that's who's done the best and who we would continue to favor, the structurally sound economies, that's the united states, that's the emerging world, at the expense of europe and japan. >> we're the most structurally sound. it says a lot, doesn't it? >> it does. >> thank you so much for joining us, mr. mcdonald. really appreciate it. >> glad to do it. >> coming up next, we have the closing down. >> you're really on this deflation kick, aren't you? >> when i see gold do what it does and these commodities getting hammered so much, you've got to ask. >> we'll talk about it. earnings from american express and ebay, just moments away. full team coverage moments away. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it.

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specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. a little less than three minutes left in the trading session. we're going out well off the lows again, michelle here. we had been down 196 points at the lows of the day, but now the buyers are stepping in. i don't know if the bias was to the upside or the downside, but we're up 117 on the industrial average. >> and the s&p is lower along with the nasdaq as well. it's been incredible, bob pisani said, it's been a ping-pong day and a ping-pong week. and it was interesting, i hate to use that word, because it's overused and we don't talk about things unless they're

interesting, but the news, maybe we thought that maybe there was an arrest in the boston marathon bombings, we did see the markets come off the lows. so that does show that there is some connection between, still, the headline risk, and security, and textuhe markets. >> i agree. coming up in a moment, we've got earnings from american express and from ebay. american express, they're looking for $1.12 on $8.03 billion of revenue, and you can see the stock is lower by 44 cents. ebay, they're looking for 62 cents on $3.77 billion in revenue. that stock is down 78 cents. alan valdez joining us. does the volatility this week feel more to you like a market bottoming or topping right now? >> i think we're still trading this cycle. i think we're at the bottom right now. i think you might see a little bounce, like michelle just said, we're off the lows. a lot of it has to do with the news cycle out of boston. but then the beige book was a little more positive than it was last month. so that was a little bit fun for

investors down here. but generally, i think we're just in this cycle where we've just come down a little bit and bounced up for trading. >> alan, how closely do you think people will pay attention to american express, considering the disappointment of bank of america. to very different business models, but ultimately financials. >> michelle, they're a big number, they're going to watch it, because they could easily drag it down, nasdaq, one big financial, like american express, could drag down the whole market. they will definitely watch it, and financials are such a big part of it, yeah, we'll keep a close eye on it. >> apple down today. how much does that affect the market psychology? >> a lot of traders have been watching apple closely. we'll watch it tomorrow real closely, see where it bounces, if, in fact, it does bounce, but apple leads the nasdaq all the time. >> alan valdez, thank you for joining us,s